Soccer stats penalty in betting22/07/2017 13:07
You can use it to analyze soccer stats, penalty success rate. Use mixed strategy, effect on soccer betting. When Penalty kick happens in a match.
How important is a penalty, analyze soccer stats for betting?
Mixed Strategy, Penalty kick
Penalty, when it comes to soccer, can be the reason for one team to win or lose because it is a game where low numbers of goals are being scored. Because of that penalties can be really valuable to the teams and are they really that important when it comes to betting?
What exactly is a penalty?
Yes, many of you know but we should still explain it. Penalty kick happens in a match when one player commits a direct free kick offense inside their penalty area. When that happens, one player will take the shot from the penalty spot. Which are 11 meters from the center of the goal. The game will resume as normal if the ball comes back into play due to save or the frame of the goal. Only the player that took the penalty kick cannot be the first one that touches the ball after that.
If you want to know how can penalty kicks have an impact on soccer betting you should start with finding information, soccer stats on how often a penalty kick happens in the matches. The number of penalties can differ from season to season and it depends on the league. Also, it is important to analyze the rate at which they are converted because after all, a free shot from 11 meters is a really good scoring opportunity but the penalties are being missed more often than you might believe.
For example, if we look at the data collated by PenaltyKickStat, we can see that in Premier League average penalties per game are 0.23, in Bundesliga 0.27, in Ligue 1 0.27, in La Liga, 0.28 and in Serie A 0.32.
Also, it is important to understand the teams that benefit the most from the penalties.
It can be really difficult for a bettor to predict if there will be a penalty in the game. Much easier is calculating the probability of the player scoring or not the penalty.
Mixed strategy, stronger side
For example, the player that will kick the ball for the penalty must have ‘’mixed strategy’’ where he will make it hard for the goalkeeper to predict where he will ‘strike’. You should know the player’s ‘’stronger side’’ or in other words if that player is a right footer or is not. If it is then he will probably strike the ball across their body to the left and vice Versa. Players usually pick their ‘’stronger side’’ around 61.5% of the time.
This is known as Game Theory and you can use it to analyze soccer stats and penalties more detailed.
Penalty shootout can affect soccer betting to a much lesser extent than the ones that are taken within the 90 minutes of the match. It is really interesting to look at the differences between the penalty taken in normal time and a penalty taken during a shootout. The biggest difference is that the average conversion rate of 75.8% drops to 70% during the penalty shootout.
This is so because the penalty is taken by an inexperienced player in taking penalties which make it much easier for the goalkeeper to save.
Statistics for the bettors
Here are some statistics for the bettors that might want to bet like this:
1. The record for the most re-taken penalty in a match is owned by Mohamed Jedidi. Taking the same penalty six times in 2004 Olympics, Montenegro vs. Tunisia.
2. Jean-Francois Gillet saved three penalties in one game in October 2015. Cammy Bell did it the same in September 2016.
3. Martin Palermo missed three penalties in a single game back in 1999. Which is the most by just one player in a single match.
4. Player that is the best penalty taker and that still plays actively in the top five leagues in European soccer (football). Yaya Toure (100% conversion rate from 15 penalties).
5. The record for most penalties awarded in a single 90-minute match is actually five and this happened in 1989. Match between Hove Albion and Crystal Palace.
6. The best record for saving penalties in the highest five leagues of European soccer (football) is held by Diego Alves (stopping 47% of the penalties or 23 from 49).
7. The best penalty success rate for anyone that gets 20+ penalties in their career has the player that scored 48/49 or 98% and he is Matt Le Tissier.