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Soccer betting picks | Elo!

Invented by Arpad Elo. Elo system into soccer it means that each team has its own rating. creating soccer betting picks according to Elo soccer rating. Best football tips with Elo ratings.

  • Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting picks!

  • Based on past performance of the teams

  • Soccer rating calculation

soccer betting picks

In this article, you go find out find out what exactly is Elo ratings. How to be applied, in order to increase your profit from soccer betting.

Invented by Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-born American master level chess player. Elo ratings can compare the levels of skill of the players in such games.

Today it is used widely to ‘rate’ the performance of the soccer teams and in many other sports and use that rates in betting. Best soccer tips are based on this system.

Applying ELO system

When it comes to applying the Elo system into soccer, it means that each team has its own rating. Higher it is, the team is stronger. They are being re-calculated constantly because every match played between the rated teams count. Winner of the soccer match will actually take some points from the team that lost. A number of points taken depend on the rating difference between the both teams. That is why this system is good to implement

So for example, if a team that is with high rating wins against a team that is with a low rating. Winning team will take only a few rating points. If the team with lower rating wins they will receive a larger number of these rating points, if it happens for the match to be draw from the pot will be shared equally.

Let’s take for example the match Manchester City vs Real Madrid on 4th May 2016, according to the ClubElo rankings, both teams are in the top 10 (Real Madrid with 2074 points, Manchester City in 1861 points). With calculating 5% of their respective ranking, the total pot has 197 points with Manchester City risking 93 and Real Madrid 104 points.

And here are the three possible outcomes:

If Man City wins, the rating will increase by 104. Real Madrid’s rating will be 1970.

Real Madrid, if they win, their rating will be 93 and Man City’s rating will be 1768.

If it ends up draw the pot which is 197 points both of the teams will equally share, Real Madrid rating will be a little bit decreased and Man City rating will be a little bit increased.

Top 10 teams that are according to ClubElo

Real Madrid 2074 points
FC Barcelona with 2060 points
Atletico Madrid with 2017 points
Bayern München with 2011 points
Juventus with 1940 points
Paris SG 1864 points
Dortmund with 1887 points
Villareal with 1872 points
Manchester City with 1861 points
Bilbao with 1844 points

These were back in 2016 because we gave the example with two teams from a match in 2016. Check out the current situation on clubelo.com

But with the above-mentioned calculations, it is only demonstrated the basic mechanics behind the Elo values in soccer betting picks. There are some factors like field advantage that are not actually taken into consideration, because of that you got to know all information.

If we take the same example from above, it is better for Manchester City to end up draw because Real Madrid has home advantage.

Good to know

It is good to know that Elo values are based on stats, according to the team’s performance. Bettors should always have that in mind, there are certain circumstances in soccer statistics like new players/manager, tactics, injuries, that might be the case for the Elo system to lose some of its predictive power. Be a smart bettor and use this value in soccer betting.

But even with that, this system in soccer betting picks is still used widely by bettors. Because they may provide a solid statistical foundation for calculating the probabilities of the different outcomes with great accuracy.

 

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